With the three-match series tied at 1-1, India’s complete domination at home will be tested on Sunday when they take on a resolute New Zealand in the pivotal third ODI at the high-scoring Holkar Stadium in Indore.
Since Australia overcame a 0-2 deficit to win 3-2, including the decider in Delhi, in March 2019, India has not lost a bilateral ODI series at home. However, that past is now very much in jeopardy.
The context is similarly strong for New Zealand. Since 1989, the Black Caps have traveled to India for bilateral ODIs, but they have never won a series in the country. This is perhaps their greatest chance to end that terrible trend.
After receiving several unwelcome firsts, India’s head coach Gautam Gambhir does not want another loss at home under his leadership. In addition to losing an ODI series in Sri Lanka for the first time, India lost five Test matches at home under Gambhir.
India’s defeat in the second ODI at Rajkot was more influenced by New Zealand’s takeover of the middle overs than by a single outstanding innings. Calculated aggression, especially against spin—an area where India has recently struggled—was the foundation of Daryl Mitchell’s undefeated century.
Indore provides significantly less margin for error due to its narrow boundaries and lack of bowler support.
There have been concerns about India’s capacity to handle spin. The team has been uncomfortable with spin in the middle overs despite having depth and power. At crucial stages, strike rotation has stagnated, pushing hitters to choose high-risk options over controlled accumulation.
Those quiet overs have the power to significantly change the momentum on a field where totals may easily go above 350.
Due to his poor performance in this series, all eyes will be on Rohit Sharma. India’s recent ODI strategy has been characterized by his ultra-aggressive style at the top, but several early dismissals have increased pressure.
Meanwhile, India’s ODI batting still revolves around Virat Kohli. The supporters will be hoping for another RoKo performance as India’s next 50-over match for senior players is probably scheduled for July during the tour of England.
The decision between Ayush Badoni and Nitish Kumar Reddy is essentially a contest between control and depth. While Badoni provides a crisper technique against spin and poise in the middle overs, Reddy brings late-innings power and seam-bowling insurance when utilized sparingly.
At Indore, where success is frequently determined by variations rather than raw pace, the argument for including left-arm pacer Arshdeep Singh also gathers traction. Especially against New Zealand’s mostly right-handed top and middle order, Arshdeep’s ability to swing the new ball, attack the stumps, and deliver yorkers at the end gives India another tactical dimension.
By adding him, the middle and late stages would be less taxing on the spinners, enabling India to rely more on pace-off deliveries, wide yorkers, and hard lengths—techniques that work better at Holkar Stadium than spin.
The problem is who he replaces. Mohammed Siraj is hard to overlook because of his new-ball role. Depending on the circumstances and batting depth, a spinner or a seam-bowling all-rounder would be the most likely trade-off.
One area where clarity already exists is KL Rahul’s role. His comebacks at number five highlight the importance of maintaining him there as opposed to moving him down to number six, where his capacity to control tempo and rebuild under pressure is diminished.
New Zealand is incredibly self-assured and clear. The Black Caps’ ability to recognize matchups and execute without going overboard has been demonstrated by Mitchell’s domination, which is bolstered by Devon Conway. Despite not being well-known, their bowlers have made good use of hard lengths and variations in situations where there isn’t much natural support.
The outcome of the match is expected to depend as much on judgment as skill at a location where bowlers are frequently relegated to do damage control.
The goal for Shubman Gill and his squad is not just to win a series but also to exhibit situational awareness and tactical adaptability, which are characteristics of successful teams when margins are narrow and pressure is genuine.
Teams (from):
India: Shubman Gill (c), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul (wk), Dhruv Jurel (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Ayush Badoni, Kuldeep Yadav, Arshdeep Singh, Prasidh Krishna, Mohammed Siraj, Harshit Rana.
New Zealand: Michael Bracewell (c), Devon Conway (wk), Mitchell Hay (wk), Nick Kelly, Henry Nicholls, Will Young, Josh Clarkson, Zak Foulkes, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Adithya Ashok, Kristian Clarke, Kyle Jamieson, Jayden Lennox, Michael Rae
