Top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite to win the Australian Open for the third time in four years, but she will have to contend with fierce competition from a United States contingent that includes defending champion Madison Keys and Coco Gauff.
When the first Grand Slam of the year starts on Sunday, two-time Melbourne champion Naomi Osaka will try to be in the running, while world number two Iga Swiatek is another significant threat.
Twelve months ago, Keys won her first major title at the age of 29 by shocking titleholder Sabalenka in a traditional three-set final. The world number nine will have a target on her back as the championship holder because she was unable to improve after that and did not win another tournament during the year.
Three additional Americans—Jessica Pegula (sixth), Amanda Anisimova (fourth), and Gauff (third)—are in the top ten in the world.
The 21-year-old Gauff’s best achievement on the Melbourne Park hardcourts was reaching the semi-finals in 2024, but she defeated Sabalenka in the French Open last year to win her second major title.
Gauff stated that she spent the off-season “just overall becoming better and more comfortable with my game” during her speech at the mixed-teams United Cup, where she announced her 2026 campaign.
Her greatest shortcoming has been her serve. She unexpectedly lost to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro of Spain at the United Cup, but she bounced back to upset Swiatek 6-4, 6-2 in a dramatic victory. Gauff defeated Swiatek for the fourth time in a row.
After having the finest year of her career in 2025, making it to the Wimbledon and US Open finals, and winning 1000 titles in Beijing and Qatar, 24-year-old Anisimova has become a significant threat. She also advanced to the season-ending WTA Finals for the first time, losing a thrilling semi-final against Sabalenka in three sets.
Similar to Pegula, Anisimova has come close to winning her first major title but has yet to do it. Sabalenka’s longtime competitor for the top spot, Swiatek, is long overdue for something exceptional in Melbourne.
The Pole has won six Grand Slam events; the only major she hasn’t yet won is the Australian Open. She advanced to last year’s semi-finals in spectacular fashion, matching her finest Melbourne performance, but lost to an inspired Keys.
Osaka, the former world number one from Japan, would be a popular champion if she were to build on her victories in Melbourne in 2019 and 2021.
The 28-year-old, who is now ranked 16th, must be considered an outsider as she can occasionally play her best tennis but is unable to maintain her fitness for extended periods of time.
Another to keep an eye on is Elena Rybakina, a Kazakh born in Moscow and currently ranked fifth in the world.
Belarusian Sabalenka experienced another Grand Slam heartache against Gauff in the French Open final after being taken aback by the unfancied Keys.
After losing to Anisimova in the Wimbledon final four, she rallied to get revenge on the American and win the US Open again.
Sabalenka, who won the Australian Open in 2023 and 2024, will play a new role when she enters the competition having finished second a year ago.
Beyond the title contenders, attention will also focus on Venus Williams as she prepares to become the oldest woman to feature in the Australian Open main draw. The seven-time Grand Slam singles champion has been awarded a wildcard at the age of 45 and will make her first appearance at Melbourne Park since 2021, having played only a handful of singles matches in recent years.
